When examining the war, we often adopt what gamers might call a “god view,” observing maps of frontlines and scrutinizing high-resolution satellite images that reveal every tree line, trench, and fallen soldier. This level of detail is unprecedented in modern warfare, and it leaves little room for either side to conceal their movements or losses.
The Scale of Ukraine’s Territorial Losses
Recently, concerns have grown about the ground Ukraine has lost. It’s natural to feel alarmed when reports frame the situation with statements like, “Ukraine lost an area the size of Greater London in November alone.” London is indeed vast when compared to England, but in the context of Ukraine, such losses are less critical. While losing ground is undesirable, it is far from catastrophic.
Even with Russia’s relentless offensives, their advances have been staggeringly slow. Consider their progress from the Donbas/Luhansk border to their furthest position south of Pokrovsk—a mere 42 kilometers over two years and ten months.
The Human Cost of Russia’s Strategy
An analysis suggests that Russia has suffered over 50 casualties for every square kilometer gained—a horrific toll. By this metric, it’s estimated that 755,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or severely injured. This figure underscores the Kremlin’s brutal reliance on attritional warfare. Unable to win a war of mobility, Russian leadership has instead pursued a strategy that accepts immense human and material losses to achieve its goals.
Ukraine’s Resilient Defense
Ukraine understands that reclaiming its territory entirely by force is currently unfeasible. However, it excels at defending what it holds and imposing unbearable costs on the invading forces. Each Russian soldier lost, each tank destroyed, represents another step closer to exhausting Moscow’s capacity to sustain this conflict.
For Russian soldiers, the battlefield is unrelenting. Waves of infantry are sent to storm fortified Ukrainian positions, only to be met with machine gun fire, artillery barrages, and anti-personnel mines. The gruesome reality of these assaults reflects the Kremlin’s disregard for the lives of its troops.
Putin’s Disconnect and Strategic Missteps
President Vladimir Putin remains detached from the human toll of the war. In one chilling moment, he addressed wounded soldiers with prosthetic limbs, asking indifferently, “Have you adapted to your new situation?” For most, “adapting” means being sent back to the frontlines if they are deemed fit enough to fight.
Putin’s incrementalism approach to the war—deliberately slow and lethal—has proven a grave miscalculation. He underestimated the manpower and resources required and is now trapped in a strategy he cannot abandon without appearing weak or admitting failure.
Russia’s Peaking Manpower and Economic Collapse
Russian manpower appears to have peaked. Chronic labor shortages at home, reliance on North Korean support, and the demands of war production leave little room for additional mobilization without destabilizing the fragile economy.
The economic strain is palpable. Inflation runs high, production capacities are maxed out, and oil and gas revenues—the lifeblood of the Russian economy—are precariously tied to market fluctuations. A significant drop in oil prices could send the entire system into freefall.
Forced mobilization remains an option but would likely provoke public unrest, as it would highlight the failures of the war effort. Questions would arise: Where are the 1.4 million soldiers already mobilized? The answer—that half are dead or incapacitated—would only deepen dissatisfaction.
The Endgame for Russia
For Russia, the situation is unsustainable. Its economy teeters on collapse, its military struggles to maintain momentum, and its people grow weary of sacrifices with no end in sight. Comparisons to Germany in World War I are apt: in 1918, Germany came tantalizingly close to success but collapsed rapidly under the strain of war. A similar fate may await Russia.
Ukraine’s Incremental Victory
Ukraine’s strategy, while slow and costly, is proving effective. By trading minor territory for significant Russian losses, Ukraine is grinding down the enemy’s capacity to wage war. Every meter of ground lost is a calculated trade for another Russian tank, another wave of infantry, another step toward ultimate victory.
The end is approaching for Putin and the regime he represents. Like other conflicts in history, the unraveling may come suddenly, unexpectedly, and decisively. Ukraine, through resilience and determination, is steadily winning the war of attrition.
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