Russia: Relapse, Rebuild & Revenge – Will the Cycle Repeat?
The Russia that emerges after the current war will be drastically different, particularly in its military and economic capacity. The war’s political and economic repercussions will make it nearly impossible for Russia to rebuild its military power within the next decade, likely taking two decades or more. With President Vladimir Putin unlikely to remain in power for that long, his successor may adopt different priorities. However, history suggests that Russia could repeat its 21-year cycle of recovery and resurgence, fueled by unresolved ambitions and deep-seated resentment.
The Erosion of the Soviet Military Legacy
The prolonged conflict has largely consumed the remnants of the Soviet military legacy, which had sustained the war effort for both Ukraine and Russia. The Soviet Union’s massive, unsustainable stockpile of military vehicles, tanks, artillery, and other hardware—often decades old—allowed Russia to persist longer than it otherwise could. Yet, this stockpile is nearly exhausted, and the industrial base that created it no longer exists.
Russia’s ability to rebuild such reserves is implausible. Even if 5% of its unsanctioned future GDP were devoted to military production, the scale of Soviet-era stockpiles would remain out of reach. Additionally, Russia’s struggles to feed, clothe, and maintain its current forces signal a dire post-war military reality.
Depletion and Destruction
Ukraine has systematically dismantled Russia’s functional Soviet-era reserves, destroying 85–95% of available equipment. If another conflict arises because Ukraine is denied NATO membership, it will not resemble the current war. The unique circumstances of this war, defined by inherited Soviet assets and adapted modern technologies like drones, are unlikely to recur.
Surprisingly, tactical air power has played a minimal role in this conflict, with Russia relying on cruise missile attacks against Ukrainian infrastructure. Meanwhile, Ukraine has utilized its limited fleet of Soviet-era Su-24 Fencers to deploy advanced Western missiles like the Storm Shadow, demonstrating resourcefulness despite outdated equipment.
Long-Range Weapons and Strategic Shifts
The vast geography of Ukraine and Russia underscores the importance of long-range capabilities. Ukraine’s increasing ability to strike deep within Russian territory, coupled with Russia’s failure to counter these attacks, will shape future strategies. Both nations will need to prioritize missile defenses, advanced drone technology, and cyber capabilities.
A ceasefire or permanent peace will leave both nations with significant challenges. For Ukraine, ensuring future security will require widespread military training, advanced defenses, and distributed energy systems to minimize vulnerabilities. These measures are essential to prevent another war and must be supported by Europe.
Innovation and Industry
Ukraine’s future defense strategy should include fostering a robust domestic defense industry, potentially independent of full EU integration. Innovation in AI, automated defense systems, and air superiority will be crucial, lessons learned from the current conflict. Conversely, Russia faces systemic barriers, including a rigid command structure that stifles innovation. Its authoritarian governance undermines initiative and adaptability, further hindering military reform.
The Trap of History
Russia’s history is one of cycles—decline, rebuilding, and aggression. The country thrives on idealistic motivations during crises but falters in peacetime under corrupt, authoritarian leadership. Putin’s regime, a one-man show lacking ideological appeal, has failed to inspire its people or military. The war, widely perceived as a mistake, has drained morale and exposed systemic weaknesses.
Russia’s post-war struggles will extend beyond leadership. Putin’s eventual departure may destabilize the nation further, with no credible successor or unifying ideology in sight. A dysfunctional system, rooted in corruption and authoritarianism, leaves little room for genuine democratic reform. Without meaningful change, Russia is likely to repeat its cycle of resentment and revenge.
The Role of the West and Ukraine’s Future
The West must not enable Russia’s recovery. Allowing Moscow to retain its territorial gains or recover economically without consequences risks setting the stage for another conflict. While Ukraine worries about facing renewed aggression within five years, the broader timeline may be closer to 20 years. The West, especially Europe, must ensure Ukraine’s security and prevent future Russian expansionism.
Russia’s strained relations with China, exacerbated by Beijing’s opportunistic exploitation of a weakened ally, add another layer of complexity. A self-reliant Ukraine, supported by the West, can serve as a cultural and military bulwark against Russian aggression.
Learning from History
Russia’s behavior reflects deep systemic issues that only internal transformation can resolve. The West must maintain a firm stance, signaling that aggression will not be tolerated. History has shown that standing up to Russia—without appeasement—can prevent further conflicts. Forgetting this lesson has cost Ukraine and the world dearly.
As the West grapples with short-term politics and an aversion to long-term planning, ensuring readiness for the next potential resurgence of Russia will be a significant challenge. The key to peace lies in consistent resolve and a willingness to say “no” with conviction. How many times must the world relearn this lesson?
