The UK recently sent around 48 refurbished Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine, just before Russia was given the green light to use them inside its own borders.
On the frontlines, Ukrainian forces are conducting remarkable defensive operations that are testing Russian forces to their limits, resulting in heavy casualties for the enemy.
In Kursk, Russian troops have advanced from the west and north and are now focusing on Malaya Locknya. Meanwhile, small Ukrainian gains in the east have had minimal impact.
The defensive line between Kremina, Svatove, and Kupiansk is weakening, particularly in the central and northern areas. Russian forces have crossed the Oskil River in one small area, but Kupiansk was cleared of Russian troops as of yesterday.
Fierce fighting continues around Chasiv Yar, while the Pokrovsk region sees significant daily advances by Russian forces.
The situation in the south is even more dire. With the fall of Vuhledar, large tracts of land have been lost, and intense fighting continues between Kurakhove and Novo Vilisylka.
Intelligence reports indicate that up to 30,000 Russian troops are amassing for an assault toward Zaporhizia.
Despite this, Ukraine is managing to hold on in some areas, but the Russians sense victory, making negotiations unlikely.
Ukrainians fear that when Donald Trump assumes office, he might attempt to end the war under the misconception that Putin will concede simply because it’s Trump leading the negotiations. However, such an outcome is unrealistic. While Trump may push for peace, any deal will require both incentives and consequences. The “carrot” might involve Ukraine losing some territory—something most Ukrainians reluctantly accept, even though it remains politically unacceptable.
But Trump will also need a “stick”—an ultimatum. The U.S. would have to threaten to flood Ukraine with overwhelming military aid, forcing Russia to continue fighting for years while crippling its economy.
Without a strong “or else,” why would Putin stop? He believes he’s on the verge of victory.
Putin is fully committed, pushing forward with everything he’s got. The only real obstacle could be a harsh winter, but with climate change causing milder conditions, that’s less of a concern.
Ukrainians are deeply worried. They fear that Trump will abandon them, leaving them to fight on alone with only European support. They’re also concerned that post-war security guarantees will be insufficient unless Ukraine is fully integrated into NATO.
They know Trump’s focus will shift toward countering China, as many of his appointees are hardline anti-China figures.
Uncertainty looms, and Ukraine is determined not to be sidelined in the discussions. They will not be ignored.
For now, they can only hold back Russian forces for as long as possible, but they are keenly aware that this war must end by 2025. Their greatest fear is that it will come at their expense.
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