A missile strike on the Dnipro steel enrichment plant this morning was allegedly from an ICBM. This struck me as unlikely and the warhead pattern – as many as thirty – suggests it was not. It would have required a completely unknown type of delivery bus (the distribution system for the warheads in space) and a new type of unseen warhead. Also MIRV’s have a very distinctive pattern when coming down from space – you can see them easily though not for long.
Western intelligence sources are now saying it wasn’t an ICBM. That’s born out by images of what looks like missile body parts – an ICBM would never have left such a signature on the target as they would have burned up in space.
My estimate is it may well have been an RS-26 Rubezh. These were shorter range ‘cut downs’ of the SS-24 ICBM designed to be road mobile, and in effect, at the time, illegal IRBM. These could carry a light MIRV package.
It could also have left enough ballistic debris fired at such a short range, that its trajectory didn’t destroy all of the missile.
The warheads don’t need to be big, the explosives coupled to the speed of kinetic impact would have been devastating, especially if concentrated in a small area as these appear to have been.
Hopefully we’ll find out in due course. I’m sure the Americans already know, but they won’t say much unless it adds any value.
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